Highlights

• • Kraus has extensive career wins and multi-surface experience
• • Bulgaru's short sample and 10-21 record suggest underdog status with higher upset risk

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (≈5.8% ROI per unit)
• + Strong experience and broader success profile for Kraus

Cons

• - Tennis outcomes can be volatile; single-match variance can erase small edges
• - Research lacks detailed recent form/injury specifics and direct H2H data

Details

We see the market pricing Sinja Kraus at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%). Comparing the profiles in the provided research, Kraus has a long, winning professional history and plays multiple surfaces, while Miriam Bianca Bulgaru has a short recent career sample (31 matches) with a 10-21 record, indicating lower baseline quality and higher volatility. Given Kraus's clear experience edge and broader success across surfaces, we estimate Kraus's true win probability at 74%. At the market price of 1.43 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.74*1.43 - 1 ≈ +0.058), so Kraus represents value versus the current moneyline. Risks include match-to-match variance and limited recent head-to-head/contextual form in the research, but the large career-sample advantage for Kraus supports a higher true probability than the book implied one.

Key factors

• • Large career and win-count advantage for Kraus versus Bulgaru's small sample and losing record
• • Kraus's demonstrated versatility across surfaces reduces matchup risk
• • Market-implied probability (~69.9%) is below our estimated true probability (74%)