Highlights

• • Kraus is the experienced favorite; market implies ~71.4%
• • Our fair price for Kraus is ~1.429 (70%), so current 1.40 is marginally overbought

Pros

• + Clear experience and likely consistency advantage for Kraus
• + Market made favorite reflects plausible on-paper strength

Cons

• - Current odds for Kraus (1.40) are slightly too short to generate positive EV
• - Limited form and surface specifics in provided data increase uncertainty

Details

We estimate Sinja Kraus is the stronger player based on experience and career win-rate versus Miriam Bulgaru's limited match record this season. The bookmaker price (Kraus 1.40) implies ~71.4% win probability; our assessed true probability for Kraus is about 70.0%, slightly below the market-implied price. Using our probability, the fair decimal for Kraus is ~1.429, which is marginally longer than the offered 1.40, so there is no positive expected value at current prices. Given sparse recent-form signals (both have recent losses) and no clear surface advantage in the provided data, we do not see reliable value on Bulgaru at 2.80 either — Kraus remains the logical favorite but is not priced high enough to justify a value bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career win-rate advantage for Sinja Kraus
• • Miriam Bulgaru's limited recent wins and poor season record (10-21) lowers her upset probability
• • Market-implied probability (Kraus 1.40) is slightly shorter than our estimated true probability, removing value