Highlights

• • Kraus is market favorite but recent 2025 losses reduce her edge
• • Home price 2.67 is above our break-even 2.439, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Home price offers +EV at our probability estimate
• + Kraus's recent form/workload creates a plausible edge for the underdog

Cons

• - Limited public detail on Miriam Bulgaru's specific recent form in the provided research
• - Estimates rely on interpreting Kraus's recent losses; outcome variance in a final can be high

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (Miriam Bulgaru 2.67 -> 37.5%) to our estimated true probability for the home player. The research shows Sinja Kraus has a long career (559-507 overall) but recent listed results include losses in 2025, indicating form and/or workload concerns. Kraus is the clear market favorite at 1.429 (69.9% implied) but her career win rate (~52.4%) and the recent losses suggest the market may be overestimating her chance in this specific final. Reaching the final implies Miriam has form and momentum in this event; given the uncertainty around Kraus's recent results and potential fatigue after many matches, we estimate Miriam's true probability at 41%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 37.5%. At decimal 2.67 that yields positive EV (≈+9.5% ROI). Therefore we recommend backing the home player only because the current price (2.67) exceeds our min required fair price (≈2.439) and produces positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (2.67) is 37.5%, below our estimate
• • Sinja Kraus has extensive career wins (559-507) but recent 2025 results show losses, indicating form/workload concerns
• • Reaching the final suggests Miriam Bulgaru has event momentum; a small gap vs market creates value