Highlights

• • Home price 1.19 implies ~84% win probability
• • Research shows mixed/poor recent form for named players, lacking doubles-specific evidence

Pros

• + Home side is the clear market favorite, reflecting perceived strength
• + Some individual players have experience on clay and hard surfaces

Cons

• - Insufficient doubles-specific performance data to justify the market-implied probability
• - Both referenced players show weak recent win-loss records, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Home 1.19 => implied 84.0%) to our assessment using the available player profiles. The research shows limited and mixed recent form for the listed players (Simona Waltert and Amarissa Kiara Toth each with 10-21 records and several recent losses). There is no doubles-specific performance or clear mismatch evidence in the provided data to justify a true win probability above the market-implied ~84%. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 78%, below the implied market price, so the favorite at 1.19 offers negative expected value. Given limited data on Miriam Skoch and Anastasiya Sobolieva in the provided research, uncertainty is elevated and we cannot justify taking the heavy favorite at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.19) is ~84.0%, above our estimated true winrate
• • Available player data shows limited recent success (both named players with 10-21 records)
• • No doubles-specific results or clear matchup advantage provided for the home pair