Miriam Skoch / Simona Waltert vs Dalila Jakupovic / Nika Radisic

Highlights

• • Implied home probability (67%) > our estimated true probability (62%)
• • Insufficient evidence of a clear edge for the home pairing given recent form

Pros

• + Home team is the market favorite, suggesting bookmakers see some edge
• + Home pairing includes a known tour-level player (Simona Waltert)

Cons

• - Market price demands >67% win probability to be fair; our read is lower
• - Limited doubles-specific information and recent poor/neutral form for listed players

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.49, implied ~67.1%) to our assessment of the true win probability. The available player profiles show broadly similar recent form and modest win-loss records for Waltert, Jakupovic and Radisic; there is no clear evidence of a decisive advantage for the home pairing and no H2H or doubles-specialist data to justify a much higher probability. Given the market is pricing the home team at ~67%, but we estimate their true chance closer to ~62%, the current home price (1.49) does not offer positive expected value. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (≈67%) appears higher than our assessed probability
• • All referenced players show similar modest recent form and win-loss records; no strong edge
• • Lack of doubles-specific data, pair chemistry and H2H increases uncertainty