Miriam Skoch / Simona Waltert vs Kaja Juvan / Kristina Novak

Highlights

• • Market prices home team heavily (1.395) despite limited supporting data in the provided research
• • At 2.73 the away side offers ~14.7% ROI given our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge: estimated probability (42%) > market-implied (36.6%)
• + Doubles at this level are variable and parity increases likelihood of underpriced underdog returns

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific form, head-to-head, and any data for Miriam Skoch—raising uncertainty
• - Small-sample and volatile doubles outcomes mean higher variance despite positive EV

Details

We find value on the away side (Kaja Juvan / Kristina Novak) because the market prices them at 2.73 (implied win probability ~36.6%) while our assessment, based on the available player profiles and context, places their true win probability meaningfully higher. The available research shows similar, modest singles records for the named players (roughly 10-21) and no clear dominant doubles edge for the home duo; Miriam Skoch lacks public form data in the provided sources which increases uncertainty around the favorite tag. Doubles outcomes at this level are often more volatile and sensitive to pairing familiarity and form; given parity in the player-level information and the market’s relatively short price on the home team (1.395, implied ~71.7%), we estimate the away pair's true probability at 42.0%, which is enough to produce positive expected value at 2.73. Calculation: EV = 0.42 * 2.73 - 1 = 0.147 (14.7% ROI).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away (1/2.73 = 36.6%) is below our estimated true probability
• • Provided player profiles show similar modest singles results suggesting overall parity between teams
• • Lack of verifiable form data on Miriam Skoch increases uncertainty in the heavy favorite, creating potential market mispricing