Miriam Bianca Bulgaru vs Sinja Kraus
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at current prices; Kraus is the likely favorite but the available 1.40 does not offer positive expected value versus our 70% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Kraus is the experienced favorite; market implies ~71.4%
- • Our fair price for Kraus is ~1.429 (70%), so current 1.40 is marginally overbought
Pros
- + Clear experience and likely consistency advantage for Kraus
- + Market made favorite reflects plausible on-paper strength
Cons
- - Current odds for Kraus (1.40) are slightly too short to generate positive EV
- - Limited form and surface specifics in provided data increase uncertainty
Details
We estimate Sinja Kraus is the stronger player based on experience and career win-rate versus Miriam Bulgaru's limited match record this season. The bookmaker price (Kraus 1.40) implies ~71.4% win probability; our assessed true probability for Kraus is about 70.0%, slightly below the market-implied price. Using our probability, the fair decimal for Kraus is ~1.429, which is marginally longer than the offered 1.40, so there is no positive expected value at current prices. Given sparse recent-form signals (both have recent losses) and no clear surface advantage in the provided data, we do not see reliable value on Bulgaru at 2.80 either — Kraus remains the logical favorite but is not priced high enough to justify a value bet.
Key factors
- • Large experience and career win-rate advantage for Sinja Kraus
- • Miriam Bulgaru's limited recent wins and poor season record (10-21) lowers her upset probability
- • Market-implied probability (Kraus 1.40) is slightly shorter than our estimated true probability, removing value