Miriam Bulgaru vs Sinja Kraus
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the market heavily favors Sinja Kraus but the available data (mixed recent form and limited opponent info) does not justify the implied ~69% probability.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Kraus: ~69.2% (odds 1.446)
- • Our estimated true probability for Kraus: 62% → current price yields negative EV (~-0.103)
Pros
- + Kraus’s long career and overall positive record suggest baseline competence and experience
- + Market consensus correctly identifies Kraus as favorite
Cons
- - Recent documented losses for Kraus undermine a very high implied probability
- - Lack of opponent-specific, surface, and recent-form data for Miriam Bulgaru increases volatility and uncertainty
Details
We compared the market prices (Sinja Kraus 1.446 implying ~69.2% and Miriam Bulgaru 2.79 implying ~35.8%) to our assessment of true chances. The only research available is a career profile for Sinja Kraus: a long, overall positive career record (559-507) but mixed/recent poor results (losses noted in late June and 01-Sep-2025), which reduces confidence that she is a ~69% win probability here. Given the limited information on Miriam Bulgaru, unknown surface/conditions, and the recent losses for Kraus, we estimate Kraus’s true win probability materially below the market-implied 69% (we estimate ~62%). At the listed price (1.446) that yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.62*1.446 - 1 ≈ -0.103), so there is no positive-value bet on the favorite. The underdog (Miriam) would need decimal odds ≥ 1.613 to offer positive EV against our 62% estimate for Kraus, but she is currently priced at 2.79 — while that price looks attractive nominally, we lack reliable data to confidently assign Miriam a >35.8% win probability, so we do not recommend backing her either. Therefore we recommend no bet — market appears to overvalue Kraus versus the limited, mixed-form evidence.
Key factors
- • Sinja Kraus has a long, slightly positive career record (559-507) indicating experience
- • Recent match results for Kraus are mixed/poor (losses noted in late June and 01-Sep-2025), reducing confidence in a >69% win probability
- • Insufficient data on Miriam Bulgaru, surface and current conditions create elevated uncertainty in any edge claim