Miriam Skoch / Simona Waltert vs Silvia Ambrosio / Aurora Zantedeschi

Highlights

• • Implied market probability (81.8%) far exceeds our estimate (62%)
• • Research shows comparable player records and no strong edge for the favorite

Pros

• + Home is a short favorite so a win would be likely—but not sufficiently certain to be profitable
• + If additional info emerges (injury to away pair or strong pedigree for Skoch) odds could be repriced

Cons

• - Current odds (1.222) require >81.8% win probability to be +EV, which is unsupported by research
• - Player profiles and recent results do not provide evidence of dominance necessary to justify the market price

Details

We estimate the home pair's true win probability at roughly 62% based on the available player profiles: Simona Waltert, Silvia Ambrosio and Aurora Zantedeschi all show similar modest career records (~10-21/10-22) and recent form with no clear dominance; Miriam Skoch's data is not supplied, so we conservatively assume she does not create an 80%+ outcome gap. The market price for the home side (1.222, implied probability 81.8%) overstates the favorite's edge relative to the comparable player history and lack of supporting form/H2H evidence. To be profitable versus that price we'd need an objectively higher true probability (>81.8%), which is implausible given the research. Therefore there is no value on the favorite at current odds and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies 81.8% for home (1/1.222) which is much higher than our 62% estimate
• • Available player profiles show similar modest win-loss records and no clear recent dominance
• • No head-to-head, limited surface/venue advantage evidence and missing data for Miriam Skoch