Highlights

• • Away (Virc) implied probability: ~70.4% (decimal 1.422)
• • Our estimated true probability for Virc: 68.0% → requires ≥1.471 decimal to be profitable

Pros

• + Favorite price aligns with observed form disparity and Jovanovic's weak record
• + No strong evidence of mispricing in favor of the underdog

Cons

• - Limited data on Lana Virc prevents high-confidence probability estimation
• - Jovanovic's small sample and sporadic results create outcome variance that could upset markets

Details

The market prices Lana Virc as the clear favorite at 1.422 (implied win probability ~70.4%) while Mirjana Jovanovic is offered at 2.62 (implied ~38.2%). Jovanovic's available profile shows a weak overall win rate (10-21, ~32.3% career win rate) and recent losses, giving us no basis to raise her true win probability above the home implied 38%. Conversely, we lack independent data on Lana Virc to justify a true win probability materially above the market-implied ~70.4%. Our working estimate for Virc is ~68.0% true chance, which yields negative expected value at the current price (EV = 0.68 * 1.422 - 1 = -0.033). Because neither side appears priced below our estimated fair odds, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Jovanovic's career win rate is low (10/31 ≈ 32.3%) and recent results show losses
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Virc (1.422) is ~70.4%, which exceeds our estimated true probability
• • No additional positive indicators (surface edge, form swing, injuries to favorite) are available to justify market-beating edge