Highlights

• • Away implied probability (~99%) is likely overstated
• • Home at 18.0 becomes +EV if true win chance ≥~6.0%

Pros

• + Clear value niche created by an extreme market favorite price
• + Even a modest reassessment of upset probability produces positive expected value

Cons

• - Very limited information increases model risk — our probability estimate is necessarily approximate
• - Longshot outcomes are high variance; EV is positive but modest in absolute terms

Details

We observe an extreme market price: the away player is priced at 1.01 (implied ~99.0%) which is implausibly certain in tennis given normal variance, injuries, retirements and match-day conditions. With no external research available, we make conservative assumptions but still allow for a realistic small upset probability for the home player. If Mirjana Jovanovic has roughly a 6.0% chance to win, the home moneyline 18.0 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.06*18 - 1 = 0.08, or +8% ROI). Conversely, backing the heavy favorite at 1.01 requires >99.0% true win probability to be +EV, which we consider unrealistic without confirmatory information. Therefore we recommend the longshot home side only because the quoted price implies overconfidence and creates measurable value under conservative upset assumptions.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~99% for the away player which is unusually high for tennis
• • Tennis matches have meaningful upset/retirement variance that supports a non-negligible longshot probability
• • No independent data available increases model uncertainty; we therefore use conservative upset probability