Highlights

• • Jovanovic career record: 10-21 in 31 matches (~32% wins)
• • Current implied probability for home (1.73) = 57.8%, well above our estimate

Pros

• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market-implied probability and documented win rate
• + Research-backed conservative estimate avoids over-committing on sparse information

Cons

• - Research lacks any information on Sara Gvozdenovic (opponent), H2H, or match surface specifics
• - Small sample and recent-match data are limited; there is room for unobserved factors that could shift true probability

Details

We compared the bookmaker-implied probability for Mirjana Jovanovic (1/1.73 = 57.8%) to a conservative estimated win probability based on her available career record and recent form. The Research shows Jovanovic is 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches, win rate ~32.3%) with recent losses on hard and clay; there is no information about the opponent or any mitigating factors that would suggest a much higher true win-rate. At the current home price (1.73) the market is pricing her at a level far above what her recorded performance supports, producing a clearly negative expected value. With no evidence that the opponent is significantly weaker or that Jovanovic has an unreported form boost, we cannot justify backing either side at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rate for Mirjana Jovanovic is approximately 32.3% (10/31)
• • Bookmakers imply a 57.8% chance for Jovanovic at 1.73 — materially higher than her recorded form
• • No opponent data, H2H, or injury/surface advantage present in the Research to justify the market price