Highlights

• • Both players: 10-21 record and identical recent-match entries in the research
• • Value if true win probability > 25% — our conservative estimate is 50%

Pros

• + Large disconnect between implied market probability and available data
• + High upside: current odds (4.00) well above the fair-odds threshold (2.00) for a 50% estimate

Cons

• - Research is sparse and symmetric — our estimate relies on absence of differentiating info, which is inherently uncertain
• - Market may incorporate external factors not present in the provided research (seedings, rankings, travel, local form)

Details

We see no material difference between the two players in the provided research: identical career span, identical overall records (10-21), and identical recent-match entries. There are no injury flags or surface-specific advantages noted. The market price strongly favors the away player at 1.21, implying an 82.6% win probability, which is not supported by the available data. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 50% for Miroslava Medvedeva (home), the current home price of 4.00 offers substantial value. Calculations: estimated_true_probability p = 0.50; required fair odds = 1/p = 2.00; at current odds 4.00 EV = p*odds - 1 = 0.50*4.00 - 1 = 1.00 (100% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player at the listed price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records and recent-match entries in the provided data
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H information is available to justify the heavy favoritism
• • Market price (away 1.21) appears inconsistent with the available performance data, creating value on the underdog