Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong/Koki Matsuda vs M. Fitriadi/C. Rungkat

Highlights

• • Current market implies ~39.2% chance for home; we estimate 43%
• • Min fair odds to break-even on our estimate: 2.326; current 2.55 is above that

Pros

• + Both home players have recent, relevant hard-court matches at this event
• + Market price appears generous to the underdog/home side, creating positive EV

Cons

• - No detailed information on the opponents (doubles chemistry and H2H unknown)
• - Our edge is modest and sensitive to overrating singles/individual form for doubles outcomes

Details

We see a clear pricing gap: current decimal odds of 2.55 imply a win probability of ~39.2% for the home pairing, while our assessment — based on both home players' recent activity on the same hard-court Bali event and solid overall records (30-29 and 26-14) — places their true win probability higher. Both players have match experience at M25 Bali on hard courts, which reduces adaptation risk and supports a modest uplift versus the implied market price. There is uncertainty because we lack direct information on M. Fitriadi/C. Rungkat and specific doubles form/H2H, so we remain conservative in our probability estimate. Using odds 2.55, the expected-value calculation is: EV = 0.43 * 2.55 - 1 = 0.0965 (≈9.7% ROI). Because our estimated true probability (0.43) exceeds the implied probability from the market (0.392), we identify value on the home side at the quoted price of 2.55.

Key factors

• • Both home players have recent match activity on the same hard-court Bali event
• • Decent individual win-loss records and hard-court experience reduce adaptation risk
• • Significant uncertainty about the away pairing and doubles-specific form/H2H