Miyu Kato / Fang-Hsien Wu vs Yi-Fan Xu / Zhaoxuan Yang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the research shows no clear edge between pairs, we assume a 50/50 match; at 2.10 the home pair represents a small value bet (EV ≈ +5%), but uncertainty is material.
Highlights
- • We estimate true probability for home = 50%; market-implied is ~47.6%.
- • Minimum fair decimal price is 2.00; current 2.10 exceeds that, producing ~5% EV.
Pros
- + Current home price (2.10) is above our breakeven (2.00), producing positive EV.
- + Research supplied does not identify any away-side advantage to justify the stronger market price.
Cons
- - Research data is sparse and shows identical records for players, increasing uncertainty over our 50% assumption.
- - Edge is small (5% EV) and could be wiped out by unreported factors (injury, recent pairing chemistry, H2H).
Details
The provided player profiles show no meaningful differentiation in recent form or surface history between the pairs (all records provided are essentially identical), so we assume parity and set a conservative true win probability of 50% for the home pair (Miyu Kato / Fang-Hsien Wu). Market-implied probability for the home side at decimal 2.10 is ~47.62%, so the current home price offers value versus our 50% estimate. EV calculation using the quoted home price: EV = 0.50 * 2.10 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI). Given the lack of distinguishing data in the research, this is a small value edge driven primarily by the market favoring the away side at 1.725 (implied ~57.97%), which we do not see supported in the provided material.
Key factors
- • Provided profiles show no clear form or surface advantage for either pair — we assume parity.
- • Market prices favor the away pair (1.725) while our conservative true probability places value on the home pair at 2.10.
- • Small edge with high uncertainty due to limited and identical data in the research set.