Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf vs Alexandre Aubriot

Highlights

• • Aubriot is favorite but the implied 80.9% is not justified by the available form and records.
• • Makhlouf’s implied chance (~27.6%) roughly tracks his career win rate, so the underdog price does not offer clear value.

Pros

• + Avoids betting into a heavily juiced favorite with little supporting evidence for an 80%+ win chance.
• + Estimates are grounded in career records and recent form on relevant surfaces.

Cons

• - Data set is limited (no H2H and incomplete recent-match detail), so probabilities carry uncertainty.
• - If there are unreported injuries or local factors favoring Aubriot, our conservative estimate could be too low.

Details

The market makes Alexandre Aubriot a very short favorite at 1.236 (implied probability 80.9%). From the research we see Aubriot has a larger sample (21-28 career) than Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf (9-22), but neither player shows dominant recent form and both have struggled in the latest results. We estimate Aubriot's true win probability at 63% based on career win rates, mixed recent form, and that his surface experience includes hard but is not overwhelmingly superior. At that estimate the bet is negative EV: EV = 0.63 * 1.236 - 1 = -0.221 (≈ -22.1% ROI). To be profitable at the current price the true win probability would have to be ~80.87% (i.e. implied by 1.236), which is not supported by the available performance data. The underdog (Makhlouf) is priced at 3.63 (implied 27.6%) and his career win rate (~29%) roughly matches that implied probability, so we do not see reliable value on the upset either. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career records: Aubriot 21-28 vs Makhlouf 9-22 (Aubriot overall stronger but not dominant)
• • Surface and venue: Match on hard; both have hard experience but no clear edge supported by recent results
• • Market price vs estimate: Book market implies ~80.9% for Aubriot which is substantially higher than our ~63% estimate