Mohammad Alkotop vs Justin Lyons
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: market price (1.38) overstates Alkotop's chances given his 1-3 recent record on hard courts and the absence of corroborating data for the opponent.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability far above our estimate (72% vs ~42%)
- • Insufficient positive evidence in the research to back the heavy favourite
Pros
- + Home is heavily favoured in the market (short price) which usually reflects player quality
- + Alkotop has recent match experience on hard courts (though results are poor)
Cons
- - Very limited and poor performance history (1-3) suggests lower true win probability
- - No information available on Justin Lyons to justify the market gap; increased uncertainty
Details
We compare the market moneyline (Home 1.38, implied ~72%) to the available performance data for Mohammad Alkotop. Alkotop's limited profile shows a 1-3 record across four matches and recent losses on hard court, which undermines confidence in a ~72% win probability. There is no information about Justin Lyons in the provided research, increasing uncertainty. Given Alkotop's poor recent form and the market heavily favoring him, we estimate a true win probability materially below the implied market price, producing a negative expected value at the current home odds. Therefore we do not recommend taking the home favourite at 1.38.
Key factors
- • Alkotop's limited sample: 4 matches, 1-3 record (poor recent form)
- • All recorded recent matches on hard court where Alkotop lost, reducing confidence on this surface
- • Market implies ~72% for home but available performance suggests much lower true probability