Momoko Kobori / Ayano Shimizu vs Veronika Erjavec / Zhibek Kulambayeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small value on Kobori/Shimizu at 2.37 because the market overstates the away pair; expected ROI is modest (~4.3%) with medium risk due to limited information on doubles pairing form.
Highlights
- • Book market implies away win ~66%, which appears overstated given symmetric profiles
- • Home at 2.37 offers a small positive EV if true win chance ~44%
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Decision backed by parity in player records and lack of injury/surface advantage
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈4.3% ROI) and sensitive to small errors in our probability estimate
- - Doubles-specific factors (chemistry, recent pairings) are not well-documented and increase uncertainty
Details
The market heavily favors Erjavec/Kulambayeva at 1.515 (implied win prob ~66.0%) while Kobori/Shimizu are priced at 2.37 (implied ~42.2%). The four players' recent profiles show very similar career windows, match counts and losing records with no clear injury or surface advantage for the favorites; form and results are largely symmetric. Given the symmetry, we believe the true win probability for Kobori/Shimizu is higher than the market-implied 42.2% — we estimate ~44.0% — which makes the home price of 2.37 a slight positive EV. At our estimate the expected value is ~+0.043 units per 1-unit stake (4.3% ROI). This is a modest value play driven by the market overpricing the away side, but the margin is small and uncertainty around doubles chemistry and recent form keeps this a medium-risk, small-edge bet.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors away team (implied 66.0%) creating potential mispricing
- • Player records and recent form are broadly similar across both teams — no clear dominance
- • No reported injuries or surface edge that justify the large market gap