Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~69% for Mona; our estimate ~60%
• • Required odds to make the bet +EV are ≥ 1.667

Pros

• + Mona is listed as the market favorite which indicates perceived edge by bookmakers
• + Both players have experience on likely surfaces (hard/clay) so the matchup is close rather than lopsided

Cons

• - Market price for Mona is too short versus our probability estimate, producing negative EV
• - Records and recent form do not provide a convincing edge to justify staking on the favorite

Details

The market prices Mona Barthel at 1.441 (implied ~69.4%), but the background data shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players (Mona 10-22 in 32 matches; Ipek 10-21 in 31 matches) with both playing hard and clay surfaces. There are no injury flags or H2H advantages provided. Given the very similar win-loss profiles and limited recent positive form for either player, we assess the true win probability for Mona is closer to ~60% rather than the market-implied ~69%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667; the offered 1.441 is too short and produces a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career win-loss records (Mona 10-22, Ipek 10-21)
• • Both have recent poor form with no clear momentum advantage
• • Market overprices the home favorite relative to comparable evidence