Mona Barthel vs Oleksandra Oliynykova

Highlights

• • Market implies ~34.1% for Barthel; our estimate is 42%
• • Current price (2.93) exceeds our fair threshold (2.381), yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Significant overlay vs implied market probability
• + Players are well-matched on paper, increasing the chance of an upset

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form; small-sample noise raises uncertainty
• - Lack of head-to-head and detailed matchup data increases model risk

Details

We see clear value in Mona Barthel at 2.93. The market heavily favors Oliynykova (1.412) despite nearly identical recent records (both ~10-21/22 across similar surfaces) and no injury information to separate them. Given that the two players have comparable form and surface histories, the market's implied probability for the favorite (≈70.8%) looks overstated and the underdog price contains a premium. Assigning a conservative true win probability to Barthel of 42% (reflecting veteran upside and parity between the players) produces a minimum fair decimal price of ~2.381; the current 2.93 is substantially higher, giving positive expected value. We acknowledge small-sample volatility and similar poor recent results for both players, so we treat this as a medium-risk value play rather than a high-confidence pick.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical recent win-loss records and surface experience
• • Market heavily favors the away player despite parity (creates overlay on home)
• • No reported injuries or differentiators in the provided research