Mona Barthel vs Kaja Juvan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Mona Barthel at 4.55 because the market overprices Kaja Juvan relative to similarly poor season form; we estimate Mona's true chance ~30% producing ~36.5% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies Juvan ~82% but season profiles are nearly identical
- • Mona priced at ~22% implied chance; we estimate ~30%
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between our probability estimate and market price creates strong EV
- + Both players' recent results and surfaces do not justify heavy favorite status for Juvan
Cons
- - Available data is limited and both players have unstable recent form, increasing uncertainty
- - Market may reflect other information (fitness, matchup nuances) not in provided research
Details
The market prices Kaja Juvan at 1.217 (implied ~82% win chance) and Mona Barthel at 4.55 (implied ~22%). The provided profiles show nearly identical season records (Barthel 10-22, Juvan 10-21) and recent poor form for both on hard and clay, with no injury flags in the research. Given the similarity in head-to-head form and surfaces, the market appears to overstate Juvan's edge. We estimate Mona's true win probability at 30%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 21.98% and produces positive expected value at the available 4.55 price. Odds used for EV calculation: 4.55.
Key factors
- • Both players show very similar season records (around 10-22 / 10-21)
- • Recent form listed for both is poor with losses on hard/clay, so no clear form advantage
- • Market heavily favors Juvan (implied ~82%), which looks inflated given available data
- • No injury or surface-specific advantage reported in the research