Highlights

• • Market implies Monika ~71% (1.405) but we estimate ~63%
• • Required fair price for positive EV on Monika is ~1.587, which is longer than current quotes

Pros

• + Monika has clear experience and superior career record
• + Both players favor hard/clay so no extreme surface upset expected

Cons

• - Monika's recent results include losses, tempering her edge
• - Leyla's youth and volatility could produce an upset, increasing match variance

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.405, Away 2.69) to our estimate of true win probabilities. Monika Stankiewicz has a long track record (559-507 career) and clear experience advantage versus Leyla Britez Risso (10-22 career); that suggests a meaningful edge for Monika but not as large as the market-priced 71% implied by 1.405. Accounting for career win rates, experience, and both players' recent losses at Challenger-level events, we estimate Monika's true match win probability at ~63%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.587. The current favorite price of 1.405 is too short to offer positive expected value (EV = 0.63 * 1.405 - 1 = -0.115). The away price (2.69) implies ~37.2% and would require a true probability >= ~34.7% to be profitable; we assess Leyla's true chance closer to ~37%? (we conservatively estimate lower given career win% and inexperience). Overall neither side offers positive EV at the publicly-quoted prices; therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Monika's long-term experience and higher career win-rate (559-507) vs Leyla's short pro sample (10-22)
• • Both players show recent losses at higher-level Challenger events, reducing form-based upgrades
• • Market-implied probability (71%) for Monika is significantly higher than our estimate (~63%), removing value