Highlights

• • Home (KOI) estimated win probability: 52.5%
• • Required price for +EV: ≤1.905; current price 1.926 yields EV ≈ +0.011 per unit

Pros

• + Small positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Conservative probability keeps us from overestimating the advantage

Cons

• - Edge is very small — returns are minimal and variance is high
• - No external data or news available to reduce uncertainty; outcome risk remains significant

Details

We see near-even moneyline pricing (Home 1.926, Away 1.893) with no supplemental public information to shift probabilities. Conservatively, we treat the matchup as roughly a 50/50 contest but assign a small subjective edge to Movistar KOI (home) based on the lack of disqualifying news and the common small advantage for the listed home side in tightly priced LEC matches. At our estimated true probability of 52.5% for KOI, the current home decimal price (1.926) offers a small positive edge versus the market-implied threshold (1/0.525 = 1.905). Given high uncertainty, this is a low-margin, high-variance value play rather than a strong conviction.

Key factors

• • Market prices imply a near coin-flip (implied probabilities ~51.9% home vs ~52.8% away), so small edges are decisive
• • No public injury/news or other information returned — we use a conservative base probability near 50% and add a modest subjective edge to KOI
• • Tiny positive margin: KOI needs implied odds ≤1.905 to be +EV at our estimate; current 1.926 exceeds that threshold