Movistar KOI vs G2
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small, conservative value on G2 at 1.377 because our estimated win probability (74%) exceeds the market-implied probability (72.6%), producing a modest positive EV (~1.8%).
Highlights
- • Market price for G2 implies ~72.6% win chance
- • Our conservative estimate of 74.0% produces a small positive edge
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available price (albeit small)
- + Conservative probability estimate reduces likelihood of overstatement
Cons
- - Very limited research/input — unseen roster or form issues could negate edge
- - Edge is small (~1.8% ROI), so variance will be significant in short term
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. The book's decimal price for G2 (away) is 1.377, which implies a win probability of ~72.6%. Given the lack of external data, we make a conservative assessment that G2's true win probability is slightly higher at 74.0% based on general structural advantages a top-seeded LEC organization typically holds (depth, stable roster and coaching, experience in best-of-one/series contexts). That implies a minimum fair decimal price of 1.351; the market price of 1.377 therefore offers a small positive edge. We keep our margin conservative because we have no up-to-date injury, roster-change, or form data; the resulting expected value is modest but positive. The risk is that unseen recent changes (injuries, roster swaps, patch adaptation) could remove this edge, so we treat the advantage as small and conditional.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for G2 (72.6%) vs our conservative estimate (74.0%)
- • No external injury/form/H2H data available — we applied conservative assumptions
- • Bookmaker margin is small; slight positive edge at current away price