Highlights

• • Max appears the clear favorite based on form and surface history
• • Current favorite price does not offer positive expected value versus our probability estimate

Pros

• + Max's recent form and hard-court experience support a high win probability
• + Semifinal placement indicates match-winning form in the event

Cons

• - Market-implied probability (85.5%) exceeds our estimate, making the favorite negative EV
• - Lack of detailed information on the opponent and H2H increases uncertainty about backing the underdog

Details

We compared the market odds to our assessment of Max Basing's true win probability. The book lists Max at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%) and Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi at 4.74 (implied ~21.1%). Max's available profile shows a strong start to his career (18-6 overall, many matches on hard) and recent deep run into this event, which supports a high win probability but not as extreme as the market implies. We estimate Max's true win probability at ~80% based on career win rate and hard-court form; at the quoted 1.17 price that yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.80*1.17 - 1 = -0.064). The favorite price therefore represents no value. We also lack any detailed data on the home player, H2H, or injury reports that would justify taking the long price on Fitriadi as a value play. Given the negative EV on the favorite and insufficient evidence to justify expecting >21% win chance for the underdog, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Max Basing's strong overall record (18-6) and experience on hard courts
• • Market heavily favors Max (1.17 implies ~85.5%) which exceeds our probability estimate
• • Insufficient public data on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi and no H2H or injury details to support the long price