Highlights

• • Home (Muhamad) estimated win probability 60%
• • Positive EV of +0.065 at current home odds 1.775

Pros

• + Current price (1.775) offers a small but clear edge vs our probability
• + Opponent shows recent losses on hard courts, increasing home's relative edge

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited (no detailed data on Muhamad in supplied sources)
• - ITF events can be volatile; small sample sizes increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment of each player's chances. The market prices the home player (Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi) at decimal 1.775 (implied win probability ~56.3%) and the away player (Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong) at 1.971 (~50.7% implied). Mitsuki's recent form shown in the available data is weak with consecutive losses in hard-court events, while the opponent is hosting in Bali where local conditions and familiarity often favor the home player. Given the limited data but clear recent dip for Mitsuki, we estimate Muhamad's true win probability at 60.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 56.3% for the 1.775 price. Using the quoted home price (odds_used_for_ev = 1.775), the expected value is 0.6 * 1.775 - 1 = +0.065 (6.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake), which constitutes positive value. We therefore recommend backing the home player at the current market price. Our view is cautious because the dataset is limited and there can be volatility in ITF events, but at the current odds the margin offers value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.775) is ~56.3%
• • Available form data shows Mitsuki on recent losing streak on hard courts
• • Home/venue and local familiarity likely favor Muhamad in Bali