Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Mukund: ~66.7%
• • Our estimated probability for Mukund: 64.0% → no value at 1.50

Pros

• + Market reflects likely favorite status for Mukund, which seems reasonable given limited data on the opponent
• + Conservative estimate avoids overbetting on incomplete information

Cons

• - Insufficient information on Mukund in the provided Research increases forecast uncertainty
• - Leo's partial data shows mixed results — there remains some upset risk not fully quantified

Details

Market prices make Mukund the clear favorite at 1.50 (implied ~66.7%). The only objective performance data available is for Leo Vithoontien (career 22-27 with mixed recent results and experience on clay and hard). We lack any concrete data for Mukund in the provided Research, so we must be conservative. Given Leo's sub-.500 record and uneven recent form, we estimate Mukund is the more likely winner but we value him slightly less than the market does. Our estimated true probability for Mukund is 64.0%, which is below the market-implied 66.7%, producing a negative edge at the available 1.50 price. Because expected_value at the current favorite price is negative, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Available player data only for Leo Vithoontien: 22-27 career record and mixed recent results
• • Market strongly favors home (Mukund) at 1.50 but we lack independent positive evidence to justify the full implied probability
• • Surface compatibility for Leo exists (clay/hard) but recent form is inconsistent; absence of Mukund data increases model uncertainty