Mustafa Ege Sik vs Enzo Aguiard
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value identified: favorite's market price (1.205) overstates certainty; the home longshot at 4.23 falls short of our 22% win-probability estimate and is therefore negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Enzo ~83.0% win chance; we find that implausibly high given data
- • Mustafa would need ≥23.6% true win probability to be +EV; our estimate is ~22.0%
Pros
- + Enzo's greater match sample and hard-court experience justify him being favorite
- + Mustafa's price (4.23) is not far from a value threshold — a small swing in information could change the decision
Cons
- - Small and noisy datasets increase model/depth risk — hard to be confident in probability estimates
- - Current favorite price requires an implausibly high true probability (~83%) to be +EV
Details
We see Enzo Aguiard as the clear favorite on the quoted market (1.205, ~83.0% implied). However, the available player data is limited and shows modest records for both players: Enzo (4-5, primarily hard courts) and Mustafa (1-2, played hard and grass). Enzo's market-implied win probability (≈83.0%) is substantially higher than is supportable from the small-sample performance data provided. Conversely, Mustafa's decimal price of 4.23 implies a required win probability of ~23.6% to be +EV. After weighing form (both recent losses), surface familiarity (Enzo more active on hard), and small sample noise, we estimate Mustafa's true win probability at ~22.0% — below the 23.6% threshold — so the longshot price does not offer positive EV. Using Mustafa as the candidate for value testing: estimated_true_probability = 22.0%; min_required_decimal_odds = 4.545; at the current home price of 4.23 the EV is negative (EV = 0.22*4.23 - 1 ≈ -0.069). Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices — the favorite is overpriced relative to what the records justify, but not sufficiently mispriced to warrant a stake on the underdog.
Key factors
- • Small sample sizes for both players make true-skill estimation noisy
- • Enzo has more matches and is more active on hard courts, justifying favorite status but not at 83% implied
- • Mustafa's record and recent form do not justify the 4.23 price as +EV