Mustafa Ege Sik vs Marc Polmans
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a very small positive expected value on Marc Polmans at 1.06 (EV ≈ +0.007) driven by his experience edge; the advantage is marginal and sensitive to small information changes.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability 94.34% vs our estimated 95.0%
- • Small positive ROI (~0.7%) at the quoted 1.06 price
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-play advantage for Polmans
- + Current odds slightly undervalue Polmans relative to our estimate
Cons
- - Edge is extremely small and could disappear with minor info updates (withdrawal/injury)
- - Thin data on Mustafa Ege Sik increases uncertainty in the exact probability
Details
We assess Marc Polmans as a clear favorite based on experience (44 matches, 24-20) versus Mustafa Ege Sik's extremely limited pro sample (3 matches, 1-2). Both have recent results on hard/grass, but Polmans' deeper match history and higher-level experience imply a substantially higher true win probability than the raw implied market volatility for a low-tier event. The market decimal odds of 1.06 imply a 94.34% probability. After adjusting for matchup context, surface alignment, and the small sample noise for Sik, we estimate Polmans' true probability at about 95.0%. That produces a small positive edge versus the market (EV = 0.95 * 1.06 - 1 = +0.007), meaning the current price slightly underestimates Polmans' win chances and offers marginal value. This is a very small edge and sensitive to minor probability shifts (injury, withdrawal, or mispricing), so the recommendation is based solely on the narrow positive expected value at the quoted 1.06 price.
Key factors
- • Large experience and match-count advantage for Polmans (44 matches vs 3)
- • Both players have recent matches on hard/grass; Polmans has more consistent form exposure
- • Market odds (1.06) imply 94.34%; our model estimates 95.0%, leaving a very small positive edge