Mustafa Ege Sik vs Zane Stevens
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — we estimate Zane ~55% to win but the 1.71 price yields negative EV, and Mustafa would require >2.22 to be attractive.
Highlights
- • Market overround ~7.5%; prices lean to Zane but likely slightly overestimated
- • Small sample sizes and noisy match stats increase outcome uncertainty
Pros
- + Zane has more hard-court exposure and a recent win at the same M15 event
- + Market pricing is clear and available to compare against our probability estimate
Cons
- - Extremely limited and inconsistent data for both players increases forecast variance
- - Current prices do not exceed our required thresholds for positive EV (no side meets min required odds)
Details
Market prices give Zane Stevens the clear favorite at 1.71 (implied 58.5%) and Mustafa Ege Sik 2.04 (implied 49.0%), with an overround of ~7.5%. Both players have extremely small sample sizes (each 3 recorded matches, 1-2 record) and the research shows mixed recent results on hard courts; Zane has more hard-court activity and a recent win at the same M15 event, so we assign a modest edge to Stevens. Our best-estimate true win probability for Zane is 55.0% (0.55). At the current away price 1.71 the EV = 0.55*1.71 - 1 = -0.0595 (about -5.95% ROI), so the favorite is overpriced relative to our model. For Mustafa we estimate a ~45.0% chance (implied fair decimal 2.222) but the market price 2.04 is below that threshold, so it also offers no value. Because neither side produces positive expected value at available prices we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Very small and noisy sample sizes for both players (each 3 matches total)
- • Zane Stevens has slightly stronger hard-court recent form and a recent win at the same M15 event
- • Bookmaker prices imply a favorite probability (58.5%) higher than our estimated true probability (55%), so no value