Mustafa Ege Sik vs Jacob Cairncross

Highlights

• • Market implies ~83% for Mustafa at 1.20, which we view as too high
• • Fair-value odds for Mustafa based on our estimate are ~1.667 (implied probability 60%)

Pros

• + Mustafa is listed as the home/favourite and likely has some advantages implied by the market
• + He has recent match activity on the surfaces mentioned (hard, grass)

Cons

• - Limited career data (3 matches) and recent 1-2 record with two recent losses
• - No scouting or matchup data for Jacob Cairncross to justify market gap

Details

We compare the market price (Mustafa Ege Sik 1.20 decimal) to our estimated true win probability. The market-implied probability for Mustafa at 1.20 is ~83.3%, but his available recent record (1-2) and two recent losses on hard and grass suggest he is not nearly that favoured in our view. Given limited data and no information on Jacob Cairncross in the research, we conservatively estimate Mustafa's true win probability at 60%, which implies fair value odds of ~1.667. At the current market odds of 1.20 the expected return is negative (0.60 * 1.20 - 1 = -0.28), so there is no value on the favourite. The lack of opponent information and small sample size increase uncertainty; to back either side with confidence we would need either substantially longer form data or a market quote closer to or above 1.667 for Mustafa (or a much bigger price on the underdog).

Key factors

• • Very small sample size and 1-2 recent record for Mustafa Ege Sik
• • Recent losses on hard and grass reduce confidence vs. market-implied 83%
• • No data on Jacob Cairncross (opponent unknown), increasing uncertainty