Highlights

• • Mbithi is the stronger player on paper (career win-rate advantage)
• • Current market odds require Mbithi to be far superior — evidence in the provided data does not support that level

Pros

• + Mbithi has a better overall record and more matches played, indicating more experience
• + Both players have been active recently so fitness/inactivity is not a clear issue

Cons

• - Recent results shown are mixed; neither player demonstrates decisive recent dominance
• - Market-implied probability (75%) appears inflated relative to the limited evidence provided

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Mwendwa Mbithi (1 / 1.329 = 75.2%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Mbithi's career record from the research is 19-16 (54.3%) across 35 matches and Salvador Price is 9-12 (42.9%) across 21 matches. Recent form snippets show mixed results for both players on hard and clay with no clear dominance or injury information. Given the data, we estimate Mbithi is the stronger player but not to the degree the market implies — there is insufficient evidence in the provided records, form notes, or surface-specific advantage to justify a ~75% true win probability. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 62% for Mbithi yields negative expected value at the current decimal price of 1.329, so there is no value to back Mbithi at these quoted odds. To find positive expectation we would require substantially longer odds (see min_required_decimal_odds).

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Mbithi 19-16 (~54%), Price 9-12 (~43%) — Mbithi favored but not overwhelming
• • Recent form shown in profiles is mixed for both; no clear momentum edge
• • Surface/venue unclear from provided data and both have experience on clay and hard, limiting a surface edge