Highlights

• • Away implied probability (61.7%) < our estimate (63.0%)
• • Positive but small EV (~2.1%) at current odds

Pros

• + Market offers a slight overlay vs our probability model
• + Home component (Ya Yi Yang) has demonstrably poor recent form on hard courts

Cons

• - Very limited data on doubles pairing dynamics and opponents
• - EV margin is small — vulnerable to estimation error and match variance

Details

We estimate the away pair (H. Arakawa/A. Miyamoto) is slightly undervalued by the market. The available data shows Ya Yi Yang (part of the home team) has a weak overall record (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts, which reduces the home team's implied strength. The market decimal price for the away side is 1.62 (implied probability 61.7%). Based on Ya Yi Yang's poor form and the absence of evidence that the home pairing is significantly stronger in doubles, we estimate the true win probability for the away side at 63.0%. That gives a small positive expected value at the quoted 1.62 price (EV = 0.63*1.62 - 1 ≈ 0.021). Given limited data on partnerships and opponents, this is a low-margin value bet with moderate uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Ya Yi Yang career win-rate is low (10-21) indicating weak form
• • Recent documented matches on hard courts include multiple losses
• • Market price for away (1.62) implies probability slightly below our estimate