Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~61.7% but we estimate 58%
• • Required fair odds for home are ~1.724; current 1.62 is too short

Pros

• + Home line is the market favorite and may be the stronger pair
• + Odds are widely available and stable

Cons

• - Current home price (1.62) is shorter than our minimum required odds for value
• - No external data (form, injuries, H2H, surface specifics) to justify moving probability higher

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.62 -> implied ~61.7%) to a conservative estimated win probability for N. Basiletti/F. Urgesi of 58%. With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we apply a margin for uncertainty and the bookmaker overround. At our 58% estimate the home side's required fair decimal price to break even is ~1.724, which is higher than the current 1.62 available, producing a negative expected value. The away price (2.18) would require an implied win probability of ~45.9% to be fair; given lack of supporting information we do not see enough upside to justify taking the underdog at 2.18. Therefore we decline to recommend a side because neither current price offers positive EV against our conservative probabilities.

Key factors

• • No external research available -> apply conservative probability margin
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.62) is ~61.7%; we estimate 58%
• • Bookmaker overround and doubles match variance increase uncertainty