Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.76) ~56.8% vs our estimate 53.0%
• • Required fair odds to break even on our estimate: ~1.887; market is shorter at 1.76

Pros

• + Ha Yoon Son’s career win rate provides a baseline case for the away team
• + Market clearly favors the away side, reflecting perceived strength

Cons

• - Recent match entries show losses and provide no guarantee of current form
• - No information on Suha Lee or the home pairing, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We base our expectations primarily on the only available player data (Ha Yoon Son) and the quoted market prices. Ha Yoon Son has a long career-level winning record (~52.5% overall) which suggests competence, but recent match entries show losses and there is no information on her doubles partner (Suha Lee) or on the opposing pair (N. Higashitani/N. Kawagishi). The market currently prices the away duo at 1.76 (implied ~56.8%) and the home duo at 1.97 (implied ~50.8%), with an overall book overround of ~7.6% indicating a built-in bookmaker edge. We estimate the true win probability for the away team at 53.0% (reflecting Ha Yoon Son’s modest historical edge tempered by recent form and uncertainty about partnership chemistry). At the quoted away odds of 1.76 this yields EV = 0.53*1.76 - 1 = -0.0672 (approx -6.7% ROI). The required fair decimal odds to break even on this 53% estimate would be ~1.887, which is higher than the available 1.76. Because the available prices are shorter than our required fair odds and produce negative expected value, we do not recommend backing either side at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Ha Yoon Son’s long career-level winning record (~52.5%) suggests modest baseline strength
• • Recent listed results show losses and there is limited information on partner performance, increasing uncertainty
• • Market prices imply a heavy favorite (away 1.76) but include ~7.6% overround, removing potential edge