N. Honda/H. Matsuoka vs C. Broom/M. Whitehouse
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find positive value on the home duo at 2.90 based on a conservative 39% win probability, producing an estimated ROI of ~13.1%; risk is elevated due to limited data.
Highlights
- • Market underprices home at 34.5% implied vs our 39.0% estimate
- • Estimated EV at current odds: +13.1% per 1 unit staked
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge vs market-implied probability
- + Potential home/venue advantages that favor the Japanese pair
Cons
- - No detailed recent form, injury, or H2H data available—increases uncertainty
- - Doubles matches can be swingy; favorites often still win, so variance is high
Details
We estimate value on the home pairing N. Honda/H. Matsuoka because the market prices them at ~34.5% implied (decimal 2.90) while, under conservative assumptions, we assign them a 39.0% chance to win. Factors behind our uplift vs market: local/venue familiarity for the Japanese pairing in Sapporo, possible crowd and travel advantage for the home team, and the fact that doubles outcomes are more variable than singles which can leave favorites slightly over-priced. There is limited public information on recent form, injuries, and direct H2H, so we remain conservative in our probability (39.0%). At the current decimal 2.90 our estimated EV = 0.39 * 2.90 - 1 = +0.131 (13.1% ROI). Because expected_value > 0 at widely available odds (2.90), we recommend a value bet on the home side, while noting elevated uncertainty due to missing detailed form/injury/H2H data.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home is ~34.5% (2.90) vs our conservative estimate 39.0%
- • Home/venue advantage (Sapporo) for Japanese pairing
- • High uncertainty due to lack of detailed form, injury, and H2H data