N. Hurkacz/S. Husar vs O. Gniewkowska/A. Lazar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favorite is priced too short versus our conservative 80% estimate, producing a negative expected return, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.19) = ~84%; our conservative estimate = 80%
- • Required fair odds for a positive edge at our estimate = 1.25 (>1.19)
Pros
- + Market shows a clear favorite, indicating a likely stronger pairing
- + If further information emerges (injury, lineup change), a re-evaluation could reveal value
Cons
- - Current prices do not offer positive EV against our conservative estimate
- - No match-specific data available to justify taking the underdog
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. The market prices the away side (O. Gniewkowska/A. Lazar) at 1.19 (implied ~84.0%) and the home side at 4.30 (implied ~23.3%), but we have no external research or injury/form data to justify a large divergence from the market. Using a conservative true win probability of 80.0% for the away side (slightly below the market-implied 84%), the expected return at the available 1.19 price is negative (0.80 * 1.19 - 1 = -0.048). The minimum fair decimal odds for that 80% estimate is 1.25, which is higher than the available 1.19, so there is no positive EV on either side at the quoted prices. Given the lack of concrete data (surface, recent form, H2H, injuries), we prefer to avoid taking the favorite at a small negative edge or the longshot without compelling reasons.
Key factors
- • No external research available (surface, form, injuries unknown)
- • Market heavily favors the away pair at very short odds (1.19)
- • Our conservative true probability (80%) implies required odds >= 1.25 for positive EV