Highlights

• • Home price 1.07 implies ~93.5% market probability
• • Conservative true probability (90%) produces EV = -0.037 (loss)

Pros

• + Favorite price is very low, reflecting wide market confidence
• + If one had strong independent evidence the favorite was >93.5% likely, a small positive EV could exist

Cons

• - No independent data (form/injuries/venue) to justify elevating our win probability above the market
• - Even small deviations in true probability dramatically change EV on such short odds; tail risk of upset is meaningful

Details

We conservatively estimate the favorite (home) has a high chance to win but, with no external research available on form, injuries, surface, or H2H, we assume uncertainty. The market odds (home 1.07, away 8.0) imply the market gives the home ~93.5% win probability. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 90.0% for the home side (reflecting uncertainty and the possibility of upsets in doubles/smaller events), the expected value at the quoted home price is negative (EV = 0.90 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.037). To justify a bet we would need a higher estimated win probability (>93.46%) or a better price on the favorite. Given the lack of supporting information and the negative EV at current prices, we do not recommend backing either side.

Key factors

• • No external research available on form, surface, injuries, or H2H
• • Market-heavy favorite implies ~93.5% market-implied probability for home
• • Conservative true probability assumption (90%) yields negative EV at 1.07