Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home: ~69.4% (1.44)
• • Our conservative estimated probability for home: 75% → positive EV (≈+0.08)

Pros

• + Current odds (1.44) are generous relative to our estimate
• + Away side contains a player with a weak documented win record and poor recent results

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific data and partner records for full context
• - Limited sample size and truncated recent-match details increase uncertainty

Details

We believe the home pair (N. Kawaguchi/E. Sema) offers value at the current price. The market price of 1.44 implies a win probability of ~69.4%, but our read of the provided research points to the away side being weaker: Jiayu Xu's documented career record across 31 matches is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and her recent form is poor. That poor form and limited win history reduce confidence in the Xu pairing's chances; we do not see evidence in the supplied research that the away side has compensating strengths. With that, we estimate the true win probability for the home team at 75%, which yields a positive expected value versus the market price. We acknowledge uncertainty because the research contains limited data on doubles-specific form and the partners' records are not provided, so our margin above market is conservative.

Key factors

• • Jiayu Xu's overall career win rate is low (10-21 in 31 matches ≈32%)
• • Recent form for Jiayu Xu is poor based on the provided recent-match extract
• • Market odds (1.44) imply ~69.4% while our estimate is ~75%, producing positive EV