Highlights

• • Our conservative true probability for the home pair: 56.0%
• • Required decimal odds to show value on home: ≥1.786; current is 1.72

Pros

• + Home pair is the marginal favorite in market pricing
• + Odds are within a range where small informational edges could flip EV

Cons

• - Current market price for the favorite (1.72) is shorter than our required odds for value
• - No external data (form, surface, injuries, head-to-head) available — higher uncertainty

Details

We estimate the home pair (N. Maines/A. Urso) to be a slight favorite but, after accounting for our conservative probability estimate and the bookmaker margin, the offered prices do not show value. The market decimal odds (Home 1.72, Away 2.02) imply a combined vig; converting the home price to an implied probability (≈58.1%) and comparing to our conservative true probability (56.0%) shows the book is pricing the home side more favorably than our view. Using our estimate, the expected ROI on the home moneyline is negative, so we decline to recommend a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No additional research available — conservative baseline assessment only
• • Market-implied probability for home (1/1.72) is ~58.1%; our conservative true probability is 56.0%
• • Bookmaker margin (vig) evident in summed implied probabilities, reducing value
• • Doubles outcomes are sensitive to pair chemistry and surface; lacking data increases uncertainty