N. Mektic/M. Pavic vs B. Bonzi/P. Herbert
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge on Mektic/Pavic at 1.35 (estimated true win probability 76%), producing an EV of about 2.6%—a cautious value play given limited external information.
Highlights
- • Our conservative model gives Mektic/Pavic a 76% chance to win.
- • Current decimal odds 1.35 exceed our min required odds (1.316) for positive EV.
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price
- + Favored team has stronger doubles specialization and partnership continuity
Cons
- - Small edge only — limited margin means variance can quickly erase gains
- - No external injury/form/H2H specifics available; assessment relies on conservative assumptions
Details
We assign a conservative true win probability of 76% to N. Mektic/M. Pavic based on typical doubles-specialist advantage, greater established partnership continuity, and likely superior doubles-specific tactics versus B. Bonzi/P. Herbert (Herbert is a capable doubles player but Bonzi is primarily a singles player). With no injury or surface information available, we err on the side of caution but still view the market price (1.35 decimal) as slightly generous versus our estimate. The market-implied probability at 1.35 is ~74.1%, while our assessed probability is 76%, producing a small positive edge (EV ≈ 2.6% per unit). The margin is modest, so the recommendation is value-driven but cautious given limited contextual data and the inevitable variance in a single match.
Key factors
- • Established doubles specialists and partnership continuity (Mektic/Pavic)
- • Opponent pairing includes a primarily singles-focused player (Bonzi), reducing doubles synergy
- • Market-implied probability slightly lower than our conservative true-probability estimate