N. Oberleitner/M. Poljicak vs D N. Cazacu/M. Neuchrist

Highlights

• • Implied market probability: 78.7% (home 1.27)
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 72% → required odds ≥ 1.389 for positive EV

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the home team, reflecting likely quality gap
• + If more information appears supporting the favorite, fair odds threshold is clear (≥1.389)

Cons

• - Current price (1.27) offers negative expected value vs our conservative estimate
• - Lack of available match-specific data increases uncertainty and variance

Details

We view the market price (home 1.27 => implied 78.7%) as strongly favoring N. Oberleitner/M. Poljicak, but given no corroborating data (surface, recent form, injuries, direct H2H) and using conservative assumptions for a doubles match at a smaller event, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 72.0%. That implies a fair decimal price of ~1.389; the offered 1.27 is shorter than fair, giving negative expected value. Using our probability and the current quoted home odds (1.27) yields EV = 0.72*1.27 - 1 = -0.086 per unit staked, so we do not recommend backing the favorite. If a better price (>= 1.389) becomes available, the bet would reach breakeven or positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.27 => 78.7%) is stronger than our conservative estimate
• • No independent data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H to justify moving probability above market
• • Smaller-event doubles matches have higher variance and less predictable pricing efficiency