N. Oberleitner/M. Poljicak vs F. Agamenone /L. Lorusso
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value identified: the favorite's quoted 1.26 is slightly shorter than our conservative true probability assessment, producing a small negative EV; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1/1.26) = 79.4%; our estimate = 78.0%
- • Required odds to break even on our estimate = 1.282, current odds 1.26 are shorter
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the home pair, consistent with a conservative odds view
- + If additional positive intel (injuries to away, poor form) appears, situation could change quickly
Cons
- - No independent match data to justify taking slightly worse-than-break-even price
- - Small margin between market and our estimate means outcome variance can quickly negate any tiny edge
Details
We compared the bookmaker decimals (Home 1.26 / Away 3.55) to a conservative internal assessment given there are no independent form, surface or injury reports. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~79.4% (1/1.26) but includes an overround; conservatively we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 78.0%, which is slightly below the market-implied level. At that estimate the home line (1.26) produces a small negative expected value (EV = 0.78*1.26 - 1 = -0.017), so there is no value to back the favorite. The away side would need a true win probability >28.17% to be +EV at 3.55; our conservative estimate for the away side is ~22%, so that also offers negative EV. Given the lack of additional match-specific data and the tight margin between our estimate and the market, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No independent form, surface or injury information available — we use conservative assumptions
- • Market-implied probability for the home side (~79.4%) is slightly higher than our estimate (78%)
- • Bookmaker overround means quoted prices contain margin and reduce apparent value