N. Oberleitner/M. Poljicak vs G A. Boitan/F C. Jianu

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) ~75.8%; we estimate a more conservative 70%
• • Required fair odds for positive EV at p=70%: 1.429; current 1.32 is below that threshold

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favours the home pair, suggesting perceived superiority
• + If further evidence emerges (injury to away, favorable surface/venue), value could appear

Cons

• - No research data available — high model uncertainty
• - Current odds are too short to offer a positive expected value under conservative probability

Details

Market prices strongly favour the home pair (1.32 decimal = ~75.8% implied) but we have no independent data on surface, recent form, injuries, or head-to-head. Using a conservative true-win probability of 70% for the home team (discounting market margin and uncertainty) the current price does not offer positive expected value. The bookmaker margin further reduces value and, given the sparse information, we avoid taking the favourite. If one had stronger evidence raising the home probability above ~75.8% (or if home odds drift to ≥1.429), a bet could be justified.

Key factors

• • No independent data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H — high uncertainty
• • Book market heavily favours home (implied ~75.8%); we discount this due to margin and lack of info
• • Doubles matches can be volatile; without matchup specifics we apply conservative probability