Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~69% looks overstated given Tang's form
• • Home needs only ~38.5% to breakeven; we estimate 43%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (EV ~11.8% ROI)
• + Tang's documented recent struggles reduce confidence in the away pairing

Cons

• - Research is limited (only Tang's profile provided); uncertainty around the home pairing is high
• - Doubles dynamics and partner chemistry are not detailed in the provided data, increasing model risk

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our independent estimate. The market prices the away side at 1.45 (implied ~69.0%) and the home side at 2.60 (implied ~38.5%). The only concrete data available is Qianhui Tang's recent singles record (10-21 career, weak recent form with multiple recent losses on hard and clay). That suggests the away pairing may be weaker than the market implies, especially in doubles where Tang's recent results do not indicate dominance. Given the limited information on the home pairing and the tendency for doubles lines to misprice teams when one partner has poor singles form, we project the home pair's true win probability at 43.0%, which is above the break-even threshold for the offered 2.60 price (requires >38.46%). At our estimate the bet on the home side yields positive expected value (EV = 0.43 * 2.60 - 1 = +0.118). We used the current decimal odds of 2.60 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Qianhui Tang's recent singles record is poor (10-21) with recent losses on hard and clay, indicating reduced form
• • Market heavily favors the away team (1.45) despite limited doubles-specific evidence; this may be an overreaction
• • Home underdog price (2.60) only requires a ~38.5% win probability to be +EV; our conservative estimate is 43%