N. Bouzo Zanotti/F. Dell'Edera vs S. Anugonda/M. Tahiri

Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~93.46% (1.07)
• • Our conservative estimate: 90% → required odds ≥ 1.111 for positive EV

Pros

• + Clear market favorite — outcome is likely predictable in-book
• + Low variance typical for short-priced favorites in doubles

Cons

• - Current price is shorter than the minimum needed for positive expected value
• - No match-specific data to justify upgrading our probability estimate

Details

We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 90.0% based on the heavy market favoritism and the typical reliability of strong doubles pairings, but we lack match-specific form, surface, injury, or H2H data. The market price (home 1.07) implies ~93.46% probability (1/1.07). At our conservative estimate the expected value of backing the favorite is negative: EV = 0.90 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.037 (−3.7% ROI). To justify a bet on the favorite we'd need decimal odds of at least 1.111; the current price is shorter than that, so no positive edge exists. Given the absence of external data and the bookmaker-implied probability exceeding our conservative forecast, we recommend not betting on either side.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H, surface) — we use conservative assumptions
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (≈93.46%) is higher than our conservative true probability (90%)
• • Very short favorite price compresses potential value; market likely already accounts for perceived dominance