Highlights

• • Normalized market probability for home: ~52.1%
• • Current home price (1.80) produces negative expected value under our estimate

Pros

• + Avoids taking a position where our baseline model shows negative EV
• + Conservative approach given limited research inputs

Cons

• - If unreported player-specific factors (injuries, excellent recent form) exist, we might miss a genuine edge
• - Close probabilities mean small information advantages could flip EV quickly

Details

We derive our estimated true probability by removing the bookmaker margin from the quoted decimal prices (1.80 for home, 1.96 for away) and normalizing the implied probabilities. That yields an estimated win probability of ~52.1% for N. Mektic/R. Ram and ~47.9% for Y. Bhambri/M. Venus. With the home side priced at 1.80, the expected value (EV = p * odds - 1) is negative (~ -0.062) under our estimate. There is no additional research (injuries, recent form, head-to-head) provided to justify deviating from the market-implied baseline, and the surface (hard outdoor) is neutral with respect to the market split. Because expected_value is below zero at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove vig (baseline estimate)
• • Surface: hard (outdoor) — no clear advantage signaled by provided research
• • No injury, form, or H2H data supplied — higher uncertainty about any market mispricing