Highlights

• • Home implied prob 73.5% vs our estimate 68% -> negative EV
• • Lack of additional data increases uncertainty; we adopt a conservative stance

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair, reflecting likely quality separation
• + If further positive information emerges for the home side (injury news for opponents, strong recent form), value could appear

Cons

• - Current home odds (1.36) are too short relative to our true-probability estimate
• - Insufficient public data (surface/form/H2H) increases estimation risk; small probability differences flip EV

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.36 => implied 73.5%) to a conservative estimated true probability for the home pair of 68% given no additional form/H2H/surface/injury data. Using that estimate the home line at 1.36 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.68*1.36 - 1 = -0.075). The away side likewise offers no value (complementary probability 32% gives EV = 0.32*2.95 - 1 = -0.056). With limited information and a deliberate conservative bias, neither side meets our positive-EV threshold at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 1.36 -> 73.5%) is higher than our conservative true probability estimate (68%)
• • No supplemental data on surface, recent form, injuries, or head-to-head — we apply a conservative margin
• • Away price (2.95) would require ~33.9% true win chance to be +EV; current estimated away probability (~32%) falls short