Highlights

• • Market price (1.36) implies ~73.5% win chance
• • Our conservative estimate is 70% → required odds 1.429, so current odds are too short

Pros

• + Home side is correctly priced as favorite by the market
• + If additional positive info (injury to opponent, late line drift) appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - Current odds are shorter than our fair estimate → negative EV
• - No match-specific data available increases estimation uncertainty

Details

With no external match data available we apply a conservative assessment. The market price on the home side (1.36 -> implied 73.5%) shows them as clear favorites. We estimate a true win probability for N. Oberleitner/J. Schwarzler of 70% based on the favorite status but account for the higher variance of doubles and the absence of form/surface/injury data. At our estimated probability the fair decimal price is 1.429 (1 / 0.70). The current best-available price (1.36) is shorter than that, producing a negative expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.36 - 1 = -0.048 (−4.8% ROI). Given this negative EV and the high uncertainty from missing data, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface or injury data available — higher uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (73.5%) is slightly higher than our conservative estimate (70%)
• • Doubles matches can be more volatile, which increases variance vs. singles