Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability: 35.7%; our estimate: 38%
• • Positive EV of +0.064 (6.4% ROI) at current away odds 2.8

Pros

• + Current away odds (2.8) exceed our fair threshold (2.632), creating value
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV

Cons

• - Limited information on the opponent and match surface increases uncertainty
• - Nada Fouad's long career and mixed recent form make true probability estimation noisy

Details

We estimate that the away player (Anja Wildgruber) has a true win probability higher than the market-implied price suggests. The book market gives the away side decimal odds 2.8 (implied probability 35.7%). Using available data, Nada Fouad's long career win rate (~52.9%) is offset by the sparse recent results (two listed recent losses), and we have no direct data on Wildgruber or H2H, so we conservatively model the true probabilities as Home 62% / Away 38%. At our estimated 38% for the away, the minimum fair decimal odds are 2.632; the current market price of 2.8 therefore offers positive value. EV calculation: 0.38 * 2.8 - 1 = +0.064 (6.4% ROI). Given limited opponent information and some uncertainty in form/surface, we treat this as a moderate-value opportunity rather than a certainty.

Key factors

• • Book market implies away win probability 35.7% (odds 2.8)
• • We estimate away true probability at 38%, creating value vs market
• • Nada Fouad has long career but recent listed results are losses, adding uncertainty
• • No opponent H2H or detailed surface/form data available, increasing model variance